In his keynote, Imagining the Next Global Economy, Rawi Abdelal argues that the global system we have known for the past 25 years is ending, and a fundamentally new order is emerging. This inflection point requires leaders to reconsider assumptions about economics, geopolitics, and society.

He begins by noting that globalization faces powerful backlash from populist movements on both the left and right, eroding the political center in the U.S. and Europe. Combined with the war in Ukraine—the central geopolitical fact of today—these forces are accelerating systemic change. Abdelal frames this as the “third act” of globalization, drawing on Anton Chekhov’s storytelling principle: the “guns” placed in earlier acts are now going off, both figuratively and literally.

He examines great power transitions through historical data, showing how China’s resurgence and the relative decline of the U.S. and EU mark a structural shift in global economic gravity. For the first time in modern history, the West is losing ground to Asia, Africa, and Latin America. These transitions, he explains, often coincide with disruption in global market integration, leading to cycles of globalization and fragmentation.

Abdelal warns that we may be entering an era of de-globalization. While a small chance exists for preserving the current level of global integration, he sees a much higher likelihood of fragmentation, with profound consequences for supply chains, finance, and international collaboration.

Turning to inequality, Abdelal introduces the concept of a “dignity gap.” While income redistribution policies can reduce measurable inequality, as France attempted, they do not resolve disaffection or restore people’s sense of purpose. The deeper issue is the loss of dignity that comes from exclusion from meaningful work. Without addressing this, societies risk continued populist backlash and systemic instability.

Concluding with optimism, Abdelal cites Tom Stoppard: “The future is disorder.” While unsettling, he views this disruption as an invitation to creativity, urging leaders to rethink economic, social, and political practices. By reframing globalization and focusing on dignity, stability, and inclusion, Abdelal believes we can shape a more resilient global system.

In this 50-minute panel, Taavi Kotka—engineer, entrepreneur, and former Chief Information Officer of Estonia—shares insights on building digital societies, joined by Serbian government officials, telecom executives, and business leaders. The discussion blends technical, political, and strategic perspectives on digital transformation.

Kotka begins by contrasting countries that feel the urgency of digitalization with those that don’t. Nations like Switzerland can afford to delay, while others, such as Estonia, digitized out of necessity. He stresses that true digitalization is not about e-government services alone but about integrating data systems across society. Everyday interactions with banks, telecoms, and private services matter more than infrequent government transactions.

He explains that the core engineering challenge is establishing digital identity and data interoperability. Estonia solved this by linking banks, healthcare, and government databases through secure digital IDs, enabling seamless services such as e-prescriptions and automated tax filing. The lesson, Kotka argues, is that digitalization is straightforward in technical terms but requires political will and long-term commitment.

The panel also explores privacy, data sovereignty, and the balance between efficiency and control. Kotka notes that while China connects everything for surveillance, Nordic countries combine strong digital infrastructure with individual consent and data ownership. The future, he argues, lies in empowering citizens to control their data while keeping systems interoperable.

Other speakers emphasize Serbia’s progress in digital infrastructure, including tax reforms, customs modernization, and upcoming 5G deployment. They highlight public–private partnerships as essential, with telecom operators and IT clusters working alongside government.

The conversation turns to the future of digital economies, including the monetization of personal data, real-time governance based on evidence rather than politics, and the risks of complacency. Kotka uses examples such as the collapse of CD stores and Nokia’s decline to warn that disruption happens quickly; countries and companies that fail to adapt risk irrelevance.

He concludes that digitalization is not the goal itself but a tool to create efficiency, transparency, and opportunity. Success requires persistent reform, citizen trust, and collaboration between governments and private sector innovators.