Virtually every assumption made at the start of 2022 has been drastically altered. Inflation is rampant with energy costs leading the way.
The supply chain is still in tatters and the prospects for sharp wage hikes have increased. The global turmoil has already dragged growth estimates down while emphasis has now shifted away from stimulating to addressing inflation pressure.
What now?
The second half of the year could bring a rebound or a further slide – what factors will need to be watched?
The United States does business all over the world, but some states play a far greater role than others as export destinations, import sources, political enemies or as allies.
Understanding U.S. relationships with Canada, China, India, Mexico and the United Kingdom will go a long way in understanding the U.S.’s economic future.
Dr Chris Kuehl is Managing Director of Armada Corporate Intelligence, where he provides economic forecasting, market analysis, and strategic advisory guidance for corporations and industry groups across the world. He serves as chief economist for several major national and international organizations, including the Fabricators and Manufacturers Association, the National Association of Credit Management, Finance, Credit and International Business, and the Business Information Industry Association. He is also the economic analyst for the state accounting societies of Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Kansas.
Before co-founding Armada in 1999, Chris spent 15 years as a professor of economics and finance, teaching in the United States as well as Hungary, Russia, Estonia, Singapore and Taiwan. His academic background includes advanced degrees in economics, Soviet studies and East Asian studies, giving him a rare global and geopolitical perspective on the forces shaping today’s markets.
Chris authors two widely read intelligence publications — Business Intelligence Briefs and Executive Intelligence Briefs — which track national and regional economic and political trends that inform business decision-making.
Dr. Chris Kuehl is a Managing Director of Armada Corporate Intelligence. He provides forecasts and strategic guidance for a wide variety of corporate clients around the world. He is the chief economist for several national and international organizations – Fabricators and Manufacturers Association, National Association of Credit Management, Finance, Credit and International Business and the Business Information Industry Association.
He is also the economic analyst for several state accounting societies – Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee and Kansas.
Clients
Some of Chris’s major clients include TranSystems, YRC Freight, C-Biz, Kansas City Southern Railroad, Echo Logistics, and others.
Professor of Economics
Prior to starting Armada in 1999 he was a professor of economics and finance for 15 years – teaching in the US, Hungary, Russia, Estonia, Singapore and Taiwan. He holds advanced degrees in economics, Soviet studies and East Asian studies.
Intelligence Briefs
Dr. Chris Kuehl is the author of Business Intelligence Briefs and Executive Intelligence Briefs – both publications from Armada. The publication provides information on national and regional political and economic trends that affect business decisions and is distributed through various business organizations.
Fabrinomics
Chris is Chief Economist for the Fabricators and Manufacturers Association. He writes their twice monthly publication – Fabrinomics – and serves as economic commentator at all of their national and international meetings.
Credit Managers Index
Chris Kuehl is also Chief Economist for the National Association of Credit Management. He prepares their monthly Credit Managers Index – a national survey of credit and financial movement – and serves as economic analyst and commentator for their various meetings and conferences.
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In this 57-minute keynote, global economist Dr Chris Kuehl unpacks post-pandemic economic realities, manufacturing misconceptions and the structural shifts reshaping supply chains, labor, retail and policy in the new normal.
This 57:51 presentation features Dr Chris Kuehl offering an in-depth economic briefing focused on the structural patterns shaping the post-COVID economy. He opens with a cartoon highlighting the shift from dismissed economic warnings to urgent relevance, drawing parallels between pandemic preparedness and early 20th-century fire safety. Just as infrastructure evolved in response to recurring fires, he argues global systems must improve readiness for predictable future outbreaks.
Addressing manufacturing, he corrects common misconceptions about its supposed decline in the United States. While manufacturing represents roughly 11 percent of GDP, he notes this is comparable to other major sectors in a diverse economy. The US remains the world’s second-largest manufacturing nation, with strong output and extensive indirect employment driven by robotics and advanced technology. Most manufacturers, he stresses, are small businesses with fewer than 20 employees, which shapes both vulnerability and resilience in the sector.
Kuehl reviews global construction trends, highlighting shifts away from traditional office development and toward warehousing, medical infrastructure and distributed office footprints. He outlines the uneven impact of lockdowns across industries, with retail, travel and tourism suffering while logistics, automotive, oil and gas and construction show steadier recovery. Small business closures have doubled typical annual rates, driven not only by revenue loss but by accelerated retirements and succession challenges.
Turning to economic recovery, he explains why expectations for a V-shaped rebound faded as lockdowns persisted. Instead, gradual improvement is forecast for late-year movement and stronger acceleration into 2021. Supply chain changes, including diversification beyond China and investment in heavier inventory strategies, will define competitiveness. He also emphasizes the challenges of workforce training in an online environment and the difficulty of transitioning displaced service workers into skilled industrial roles.
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