The global economy, for decades based upon a rules-based trade system, is undergoing profound and fundamentally transformative shifts.
China seeks to dominate and manage Asia’s commercial relations, project military power worldwide, and challenge U.S. global leadership. Russia is upending Europe’s security architecture and fracturing the European Union. Iran’s nuclear weapons breakout is destabilizing the Middle East and its global oil and gas supply network.
Energy scarcity, food shortages, cybersecurity, and climate policy are increasingly shaping international decision-making. Amid the most challenging international landscape since of the end of the Cold War thirty years ago, John Sitilides’ powerful keynote presentation delivers valuable insights, clear-eyed intelligence, and thoughtful understanding of current and future geopolitical and geo-economic trends in the near-term and over the horizon.
Against the backdrop of a visually dynamic slide deck, he simplifies complex foreign policy and international security trends and developments to concisely deliver the most valuable knowledge, information, and open-source intelligence, to help leadership audiences better understand, anticipate, and mitigate geopolitical risk in today’s disrupted industry, finance, and diplomacy landscape.
John Sitilides is a Washington, D.C.–based geopolitical strategist and Principal at Trilogy Advisors LLC, specializing in U.S. government relations, international affairs, and geopolitical risk. He chairs the U.S. State Department’s Advanced Area Studies Program for Southeast Europe at the Foreign Service Institute (since 2006), and previously directed the Western Policy Center before its merger with the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Southeast Europe Project (2005–2011).
A recognized expert, Sitilides serves as a National Security Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, provides exclusive geopolitical analysis to institutional and retail clients, and is a prominent commentator on major media networks including Bloomberg, CNN, FOX, and more. His insights help audiences from corporate executives to investors and civic groups—understand shifting global dynamics and make informed decisions.
John Sitilides is Principal at Trilogy Advisors LLC in Washington, D.C., specializing in U.S. government relations, geopolitical risk, and international affairs, and Senior Fellow, National Security Program, at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
Delivering exclusive geopolitical risk reports, webcasts, and related products and services to institutional capital market and retail clients, he is a professional speaker at corporate, investor, and industry conferences, and before government, military and intelligence community audiences, on geopolitical risk management and the business impacts of international security policies.
John Sitilides explores the complex geopolitical and geo-economic decisions that impact markets in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and worldwide, helping corporate executives, investment managers and civic audiences better understand, anticipate, and mitigate risk.
Under a U.S. government contract since 2006, Sitilides is the Southern Europe Regional Coordinator at the Foreign Service Institute, the State Department’s professional development and diplomacy academy for American foreign policy professionals.
He was Board Chairman of the Woodrow Wilson Center Southeast Europe Project from 2005-2011, following seven years as Executive Director of the Western Policy Center, an international relations institute specializing in U.S., NATO and EU interests in southeastern Europe and the Middle East, until he negotiated its 2004 merger with the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
John Sitilides has testified before Congress and is a frequent national security commentator on U.S. and international media such as Bloomberg News, CNN, FOX News, CNN International, Newsmax and NewsNation, and has interviewed or cited in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Washington Post, Washington Times, The National Interest, Politico, National Public Radio, Euromoney, Asia Times, Institutional Investor, South China Morning Post, and other leading print and digital media.
His domestic client portfolio includes industry leaders in real estate development, home construction and agribusiness, along with aviation and emerging technology companies, with a specialization in environmental regulatory reform and private property rights protection. He launched his career in the U.S. Senate and on a series of successful political campaigns.
John Sitilides serves on the Executive Committee and Board of Trustees of Leadership 100, a national Orthodox Christian foundation. He served on the Board of Directors of 3doo, Inc., a VR/AR media technology company, and of Biovest International, developing personalized cancer immunotherapies; the Board of Directors of International Orthodox Christian Charities, a global humanitarian organization; and the Board of Governors of the Advanced Imaging Society, promoting the global motion picture industry’s arts and technologies.
He is a member of the Association of International Risk Intelligence Professionals, the Intelligence and National Security Alliance, the Columbia University Club of Washington, D.C., the Empire State Forum, and the Association of Former Senate Aides.
John Sitilides holds a Master’s Degree in International and Public Affairs from Columbia University. His wife is an attorney and businesswoman, and they have four sons.
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A direct, executive-style briefing on China’s strategy across trade, technology, and Taiwan, and how U.S. energy policy choices shape national power.
John Sitilides opens with a data over dogma premise and a disclaimer that he speaks in a personal capacity. He frames the global system as a free and open maritime order that moves 90 percent of world commerce and most oil and LNG, a system now contested by China and, to a lesser degree, Russia. He argues China benefited most from this order after its WTO entry, yet seeks to upend it under the Chinese Communist Party’s centralized control.
He outlines three fronts. Trade: the Belt and Road Initiative exports China’s excess capacity and builds influence across the Global South, paired with debt leverage and expanded roles in international bodies. BRICS enlargement and Middle East diplomacy signal efforts to reduce dollar dependence. Technology: Made in China 2025 targets leadership in AI, quantum, robotics, EVs, and more, while China Standards 2035 aims to set global interoperability rules.
He contrasts Western openness with China’s surveillance model and warns of values embedded in technical standards. Taiwan: beyond invasion scenarios, he highlights a plausible blockade, the difficulty of breaking it, and the stakes around TSMC’s advanced chips, CCP legitimacy, and China’s power projection beyond the first island chain with anti-access missiles.
Turning to U.S. policy, he criticizes domestic decisions that raise energy costs and draw down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve while China fills its reserves. He cites long-term projections that oil and natural gas remain dominant, arguing the world is experiencing energy addition and diversification, not a full transition.
He points to Europe’s overreliance on Russian energy and Germany’s deindustrialization pressures as cautionary tales. He notes China’s push to dominate EV supply chains and critical minerals, warning against new strategic dependence. He closes by urging energy sovereignty, sustained U.S. production, and prudent defense and industrial policy to deter adversaries and preserve prosperity.
00:00 Introduction, disclaimer, data over dogma theme
01:10 Maritime order and global trade flows as the foundation of prosperity
02:20 China’s rise post WTO and CCP control as the central lens
04:05 The three Ts overview: trade, technology, Taiwan
05:00 Trade: Belt and Road, debt leverage, Global South influence
07:10 BRICS expansion, dollar alternatives, Middle East diplomacy
08:40 Technology: Made in China 2025 targets and investment focus
10:05 China Standards 2035 and values embedded in technical rules
11:20 Taiwan scenarios, blockade risk, and semiconductor dependence
13:30 Anti-access missile strategy and regional deterrence challenge
15:00 U.S. fiscal constraints and implications for defense readiness
16:20 Energy policy critique, SPR drawdown, China stockpiling
17:30 Long-run mix: hydrocarbons remain dominant, addition not transition
19:00 Europe case study, German industrial pressures and LNG scramble
20:15 China’s EV and battery supply chain dominance risk
21:30 Call for U.S. energy sovereignty and strategic resolve
22:30 Closing message and audience Q&A setup
John Sitilides delivers a candid international security briefing on Russia’s war, China’s ambitions, and the fragile global energy and trade system.
Speaking at Royal Fidelity in the Cayman Islands, John Sitilides opens with a warning that today’s geopolitical landscape is the most complex and dangerous since the end of the Cold War. He emphasizes that the globalization era of the 1990s has effectively ended, beginning with trends 15 years ago and accelerating with Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Sitilides frames global stability around maritime geography: 70 percent of the Earth is water, and 90 percent of trade flows by sea, including most oil and gas. The U.S.-led liberal order, safeguarded by American and allied navies, underpinned unprecedented prosperity until now. Russia and China now directly challenge this order.
He identifies Russia as a nuclear and commodity superpower with vast geography and global reach, pursuing revisionist aims. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine reflects a belief that Ukraine has no right to exist, a stance underpinned by nuclear threats, energy leverage, and historical claims. Sitilides underscores Europe’s overdependence on Russian gas, Angela Merkel’s strategic miscalculation, and NATO’s evolving role with Finland and Sweden’s accession. He cautions that sanctions are not global—major states like India, Brazil, and South Africa prioritize their own security and economic ties with Moscow.
China complements Russia with manufacturing might, pursuing Belt and Road infrastructure, influence in the Caribbean and Latin America, and ambitious technology programs like Made in China 2025 and Standards 2035. He stresses the geopolitical implications of Chinese investment and its effort to reshape global norms. He highlights tensions in the South China Sea, anti-access missile strategies, and Taiwan’s centrality to global semiconductors and U.S. security commitments.
Sitilides expands the view to Iran’s destabilizing role and nuclear ambitions, the risk of proliferation across the Middle East, and Europe’s renewed dependence on Gulf states for energy. He concludes with the global food security crisis tied to disrupted Ukrainian exports, warning of migration pressures in North Africa and the Middle East with potential spillovers to Europe. His closing call is for strategic clarity, renewed U.S. engagement in the Caribbean and Latin America, and preparedness for a multipolar world marked by sharper competition and fragile supply chains.
00:00 Opening, context, and disclaimer
01:30 Maritime geography and global trade flows
03:15 Russia’s geography, nuclear arsenal, and invasion of Ukraine
06:10 NATO dynamics, Finland and Sweden expansion
08:05 Russia as energy and commodities superpower
10:00 Sanctions reality—most of the world not participating
12:00 Russia–China partnership and Beijing’s long-term ambitions
14:15 Belt and Road Initiative, influence in the Caribbean and Latin America
17:00 China’s R&D dominance, Made in China 2025, Standards 2035
20:00 South China Sea sovereignty claims and U.S. response
22:30 Taiwan’s strategic importance and military scenarios
25:00 Indo-Pacific security networks: Quad and AUKUS
27:00 China’s economic pressures, zero-COVID impact, leadership dynamics
29:30 Russia–China Arctic cooperation and energy projects
31:00 Iran’s destabilization, nuclear trajectory, and regional implications
34:00 U.S.–Saudi relations and Europe’s new energy dependence
36:10 Global food and fertilizer disruptions from Ukraine war
38:00 Migration risks for fragile states in North Africa and the Middle East
40:00 Closing remarks, Q&A invitation
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Topics include geopolitical risk management, global energy policy, U.S. foreign policy, trade dynamics, and the geopolitical consequences of global leadership shifts.
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